Financial thoughts

Journalism is often called the first draft of history. The credit crisis has presented an unusually large share of professional scribes a chance to make their marks for posterity.

And they’re not alone. A slew of former financial professionals and public officials, including ex-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, are flooding the market with books offering their take on the meltdown. But it’s questionable whether demand will meet supply.

It’s not just a matter of separating the seminal works from the banal. After all, even though each book may present its own spin, few readers are likely to want to — or have the time to — worm their through every single tome.

And some may prefer insider accounts to ones written by reporters: former Lehman Brothers banker Lawrence McDonald’s take on the demise of his firm, A Colossal Failure of Common Sense has already made it into the New York Times bestseller lists, for example.

There’s also the fatigue factor. Interested readers have lived with near-blanket coverage of the crisis for two years in all media formats from print to TV to blogs. Many news organizations have already run in-depth reports on elements of the crisis that could count as mini-books themselves. CNBC anchor David Faber turned one such broadcast into print, with And Then the Roof Caved In: How Wall Street Greed and Stupidity Brought Capitalism to Its Knees.

That’s not to say the coming raft of credit crisis tell-alls will bomb low interest rate personal loans. Some, such as William Cohan’s Bear Stearns book House of Cards, have already garnered decent sales. But with so many books to choose from in coming months, it’ll be harder for any to distinguish themselves as the defining one of the era — think Liar’s Poker or Barbarians at the Gate for Wall Street in the 1980s, still in demand 20 years later.

Moreover, there are already signs that publishers handing out advances during the peak of the panic acted as profligately as bond investors buying subprime paper during the boom. Two books about Bernie Madoff have flopped, including one by the journalist who in 2001 first questioned his investment business; and another by an investor who had an affair with the Ponzi king. Advance leaks about that apparent rendezvous failed to sell books.

Sure, sales may pick up after the Lehman anniversary. But early performances of the few books out on the subject must leave some publishers worried about covering their costs, let alone making money. Or perhaps they should just take a longer-term view. After all, John Kenneth Galbraith’s classic on The Great Crash of 1929 wasn’t published until 1955. 

Source