Bond traders are cutting expectations for U.S. inflation by the most since December, providing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke the scope for additional stimulus as the central bank
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St. Louis should expect little improvement in the local job market or housing prices this year, according to a dismal new forecast from economists at PNC Bank.
Some excerpts:
St. Louis has not been able to accelerate its economic growth beyond stall speed thus far since the end of the recession. Employment growth is barely positive, and the market area’s labor force is declining in the absence of new job opportunities. What had appeared to be another manufacturing-centric turnaround story alongside so many other Midwest regional economies in early 2011 has sputtered entering 2012. The labor force has either been flat or seen outright declines in three of the past five quarters, indicating that would-be workers are falling out of the labor force count for lack of significant job opportunities. St. Louis looks set for sub par job creation through the next several quarters. Price declines (for homes) show little sign of bottoming out in the very near term, leading to expectations that even minimal price growth will be delayed until 2013. With employment gains temporarily stalled, housing demand will offer little price support in the coming year. St. Louis has traditionally posted a median household income level slightly greater than the Midwest and U.S. averages. This standing is under threat over the next few years, however, as the market area struggles to steady its labor market, and therefore its earnings potential.
The report expands on remarks made by an economist for the large Pittsburgh bank on a visit to St. Louis last week.
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Germany and the European Commission on Tuesday called on EU nations to stick to their agreed budget cuts despite mounting voter discontent, but promised some new efforts to boost growth to alleviate economic hardship.
In elections on Sunday, voters in France and Greece gave strong support to parties who want to roll back or slow down the spending cuts and tax increases that have defined Europe’s response to its debt crisis.
That added to cries from labor unions and some governments for more measures to boost economic growth to offset the devastating impact on jobs that austerity measures are having.
Officials in Berlin and Brussels said there was some room for more reforms to help growth, but insisted that any new growth policies must not detract from Europe’s drive to lower its deficits.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said there could be no fundamental change in direction.
“What member states have to do is be consistent, implementing the policies that they have agreed,” Barroso told reporters on the eve of Europe Day, which celebrates the ever closer cooperation between the nations of the Continent. “Now, the key is implementation.”
On Sunday night, however, the calls from some European capitals were different, with French socialist president-elect Francois Hollande vowing that “austerity can no longer be inevitable.”
In Greece, parties that rejected belt-tightening made big gains and there were fears that the new leadership would renege on commitments made to secure the country’s massive rescue loans. An outright rejection of the bailout could eventually see Greece leave the euro currency bloc, a possibility that was unnerving financial markets.
As the debate over austerity intensified, EU President Herman Van Rompuy called for an informal summit of the 27 EU government leaders on May 23 to discuss economic growth and to prepare for a summit in June focused on job creation short term personal loans.
Barroso discounted the notion that Europe was going to revise its fiscal policy commitments.
“It would be completely demagogical and not serious to propose to some of our member states to relax now the efforts of fiscal consolidation,” he said.
He insisted that sustained debt reduction was essential to convince markets, build confidence and cut borrowing costs. “Every euro spent on interest payments is a euro less for jobs and investment,” he said.
Germany largely backed the Commission’s stance of staying rigid on fiscal restraint while seeking concerted measures for growth.
“The end of the debt policy has been agreed in Europe. It has to stay that way,” said German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in Berlin.
Like Barroso, he suggested that economic growth could be enhanced, but through structural reforms _ not through increased government spending.
“It’s right that we are simultaneously creating new growth impulses. That’s why we have to add to the fiscal pact for less debt a growth pact for more competitiveness.
“I’m very confident that we will be able to overcome the crisis this way with less debt and more growth. Both belong together,” he said.
The debate on the policies should come up at the May 23 summit, the first for newly elected President Hollande.
Outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel worked closely together to set the EU course out of the financial crisis. Now, Hollande comes in with his own agenda.
He said his first act as president will be to write a letter to other European leaders calling for a renegotiation of a budget-trimming treaty aimed at bringing the continent’s economies closer together _ a stance that puts him at odds with Merkel.
India deferred a plan to clamp down on tax avoidance by a year after the proposals stoked concern that foreign investment will decline and hurt growth in Asia
Under pressure to take action on rising gasoline prices, President Barack Obama wants Congress to strengthen federal supervision of oil markets, increase penalties for market manipulation and empower regulators to increase the amount of money energy traders are required to put behind their transactions.
The White House plan, which Obama was to unveil Tuesday, is more likely to draw sharp election-year distinctions with Republicans than have an immediate effect on prices at the pump. The measures seek to boost spending for Wall Street enforcement at a time when congressional Republicans are seeking to limit the reach of federal financial regulations.
Obama plans to spell out his $52 million proposal Tuesday at the White House, where he will be joined by Attorney General Eric Holder.
Republicans have been hammering Obama on his energy policies, recognizing the political cost of high gas prices on the president. Obama’s plan would turn the tables on Republicans by taking aim at Wall Street’s role in the oil price chain.
Senior administration officials who put together the proposal said it aims to detect and deter illegal manipulation by energy speculators, the type of practices that many Democrats blame for the high cost of gasoline. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the plan ahead of Obama’s announcement.
They would not go as far as to say that market manipulation is responsible for rising gas prices, but the officials said they wanted to curtail the ability of speculators to take unlawful advantage of oil price volatility.
At issue is the increasing role of investment in oil futures contracts by pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, exchange traded funds and other investors. Much of that money is betting that oil prices will rise. Analysts say it is possible that such speculation has somewhat inflated the price of oil.
At the same time, investors can also bet that prices will go down _ indeed, speculators have been credited for low natural gas prices. Studies of the effects of speculation on oil markets indicate that it probably increases volatility, but doesn’t have a major effect on average prices.
Still, seeing a potential problem with speculators is not limited to Obama or Democrats or this election season. When gasoline hit $3 a gallon in 2006, George W business cards. Bush launched an investigation, declaring Americans “don’t want and will not accept … manipulation of the market. And neither will I.” Last year, as prices rose, Obama and Holder announced the creation of a task force to look into fraud in the energy markets.
Obama’s plan this time calls on Congress to:
_ Increase six-fold the surveillance and enforcement staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to better deter oil market manipulation.
_ Increase spending on technology to provide better oversight and surveillance of energy markets.
_ Increase civil and criminal penalties against firms that engage in market manipulation from $1 million to $10 million.
_ Give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority to increase the amount of money that a trader must put up to back a trading position. The administration officials said such authority could help limit disruptions in energy markets.
In addition, the Obama administration, on its own, will increase access to the commission’s data so the White House Council of Economic Advisers can examine and analyze trading information.
The White House effort comes at the same time that Republicans have been pushing Obama with their own energy proposals. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, wants to seek votes on more domestic oil and natural gas exploration, a freeze on regulations on refineries and approval of construction of the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to Texas, a project Obama has blocked.
Republicans are also trying to place limits on the financial regulation legislation Congress passed in 2010 over Republican objections. Though the House Republican budget, which calls for sharp reductions in government programs, does not specify reduction in spending by the trading commission, the administration officials said that if the cuts were applied the commission would lose more than five times what it spends on regulating energy markets.
The debate will pit Republicans who blame Obama for high gasoline prices against a White House that blames Republicans for coddling Wall Street.
Royal Dutch Shell says it is confident a 10-mile oil sheen spotted in the Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast didn’t originate from its operations in the area.
In a statement Thursday, the company says it found no sign of leaks and ruled out any well-control issues associated with its operations. The sheen was spotted late Wednesday.
A Coast Guard helicopter with a pollution officer on board was heading out Thursday morning to the site, about 130 miles southeast of New Orleans, in an effort to determine the source of the oil.
Shell estimates the sheen at six barrels of oil, or about 252 gallons. The company sent a response ship to skim the area as a precaution.
The company has two production platforms in the area, called Mars and Ursa.
Shares in Royal Dutch Shell PLC fell in European trading early Thursday after the sheen was reported. After New York trading opened, Shell’s U.S. shares were up 32 cents at $68.07.
Early reports could not determine whether oil was continuing to flow at the site near the Shell platforms.
The Mars and Ursa fields are producing oil and natural gas from huge tension-leg production platforms. The Mars platform is in 2,900 feet of water while Ursa is in 4,000 feet of water.
Shell operates six major offshore facilities, 13 crewed platforms and numerous subsea systems in the Gulf.
The sheen was reported in an area about 50 miles from the site of BP’s Macondo well, which blew out in April 2010 and created the nation’s worst offshore oil disaster. The now-plugged Macondo well is in about 5,000 feet of water.
Sheens spread quickly as oil breaks down and a small amount can cover a large area. Earlier this week, a tanker in the Mississippi River south of New Orleans spilled an estimated 50 gallons of oil. The sheen from the discharge extended almost 30 miles downriver.
Other possible sources, aside from oilfield equipment, could include natural seepage from the Gulf bottom and fuel discharged by passing ships headed into or out of the Mississippi River.
Italy’s government has presented details of its contentious labor market reform, saying it contains costs for companies as well as introducing flexibility for hiring and firing employees and new opportunities for young workers.
Premier Mario Monti and Labor Minister Elsa Fornero outlined the proposed legislation Wednesday after winning backing from three major parties. Monti said he expected that, in light of such support, Parliament would approve the reform package “as quickly as possible.”
Fornero acknowledged the difficulty Italians may have in accepting the changes, particularly the contentious issue of making it easier to fire workers. But she said: “The world has changed, and we have to try to adapt to a changed world.”
She said planned to travel across Italy to explain the changes to Italians and unions.
Japan has failed to create a revamped nuclear regulatory agency by the promised date _ April 1 _ amid political infighting, raising questions about its commitment to bolstering oversight after last year’s nuclear crisis.
Authorities have been accused of lax supervision of Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors after a massive earthquake and tsunami led to a meltdown of three reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant in the world’s worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s Cabinet has endorsed a bill to create a more powerful and independent regulatory body that would unify various nuclear safety and regulatory agencies.
But progress has been slowed by disagreements over how much independence it should have and by other disputes.
A cruise ship with 1,000 people on board that had drifted for 24 hours after being disabled by a fire was headed toward Malaysia following repairs and was expected to reach shore Sunday, the ship’s company said.
The Azamara Quest, which had embarked on a 17-day Southeast Asian cruise, was left drifting in southern Philippine waters after a fire broke out Friday night. The flames engulfed one of the ship’s engine rooms but were quickly extinguished, the ship’s operator said. Five crew members suffered smoke inhalation, including one who was seriously injured and needed hospital care.
The ship informed the Philippine coast guard late Saturday that its power and propulsion had been restored and that it was moving slowly toward Sandakan, Malaysia, its next destination after it left Manila on Thursday, spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Algier Ricafrente said.
Azamara Club Cruises, the ship’s operator, said in a statement Sunday that the ship was sailing at a top speed of only 6 knots (11 kilometers or 6.9 miles per hour) and was expected to reach Sandakan at 10 p.m. (1400 GMT).
“Unfortunately, the ship has not been able to restore power to the air conditioning compressors. While this is a very difficult undertaking, the onboard team is diligently working to resolve this issue. The guest sentiment onboard continues to be calm and upbeat,” the statement said.
It said company president Larry Pimentel would meet personally with the passengers and crew in Sandakan.
The company said the rest of the cruise would be canceled. It said it would fully refund the passengers and provide each guest with a future cruise certificate for the amount paid for the aborted voyage.
It was the latest in a series of accidents hitting luxury cruise liners since January, when the Costa Concordia capsized off the coast of Italy, killing 32 people.
The Azamara Quest is carrying 590 passengers and 411 crew members. Operator Azamara Club Cruises is part of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
More than one third, or 201, of the passengers on board are American, and nearly a third, or 119, of the crew are Filipinos, according to lists of passenger and crew nationalities provided by the ship captain to the coast guard.
The passengers are from 25 countries and include 98 from Britain, 89 from Australia, 45 from Canada, 39 from Germany, 32 from Austria, 16 from Belgium, 14 from New Zealand and 14 from Switzerland.
The other crew members include 58 Indians and 50 Indonesians cash advance.
The vessel had left Hong Kong on Monday. The ship made a port call in Manila and left for Sandakan on Thursday. It was scheduled to make several stops in Indonesia before arriving in Singapore on April 12.
But instead, the stricken ship drifted Saturday in the Sulu Sea about 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) south of the Philippines’ Tubbataha Reef, Ricafrente said. The area lies between the Philippines and the island of Borneo, which is divided between Malaysia and Indonesia.
A woman from Kailua-Kuna, Hawaii, who said she is one of the passengers, posted an entry on Azamara’s Facebook page after Internet service was restored on the ship, praising the crew’s handling of the situation.
“No A/C yet but everyone is fine,” she wrote. “Cannot say enough about this Captain and the crew. They have been absolutely wonderful keeping us updated constantly with the good or the bad. … Sorry that we cannot finish our cruise, but we will back ASAP.”
She said the crew worked with very little rest “to keep us all in good spirits, well fed and comfortable.”
There was a jar where passengers could place donations to help the injured crewman who was in serious condition, she said.
Ricafrente said that no distress call was received and that there would be an investigation.
A Philippine coast guard vessel approached the Azamara Quest, but the ship’s captain sent an email to the coast guard saying that it needed no assistance and that everything was “under control.”
Engineers on Saturday morning restored electricity in the ship to re-establish air conditioning, running water, plumbing, refrigeration and food preparation, the company said.
The ship’s senior physician, Oliver Gilles, said the crew member who was in serious condition had suffered “prolonged heat and smoke exposure.”
A month after 32 people died when the Costa Concordia ran aground and capsized off the western coast of Italy, a fire on the Costra Allegra left that ship without power and adrift in waters known to be prowled by pirates in the Indian Ocean for three days.
Both Costa ships are part of Costa Crociere, SpA, a subsidiary of Carnival Corp., the world’s largest cruise operator.
Myanmar next week holds the most inclusive elections since the military rejected an opposition victory in 1990, as the potential for economic ties with western nations encourages the leadership to relax control.
By-elections for 43 of the national legislature