Financial thoughts

A second, euro130 billion ($172 billion) bailout and a deep debt write-off for financially stricken Greece will ward off a financial disaster in Europe.

Economists, however, only give the deal a slim chance of putting the country on the path to economic recovery _ and steadying its place in Europe’s currency union.

Agreement on the bailout, reached early Tuesday after an all-night summit of finance ministers seven months after it was first proposed, will give Greece euro130 billion in loans through 2014 from other eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund. It’s the country’s second bailout, following a euro110 billion rescue secured in 2010 that didn’t return the country to solvency.

The agreement also assumes that banks and investors owed money by Greece will take new bonds that reduce their holdings by more than half.

In return for the second bailout, Greece has agreed to painful and humiliating measures imposed by its mistrustful partners which also use the euro, annoyed after two years of what they say are broken promises to reform. Athens agreed to cut spending and wages, and to permit outsiders to supervise its finances through the presence of European Union and International Monetary Fund officials permanently stationed in Greece. The rescuers also demanded a separate account for the aid money and legal guarantees that creditors get paid before teachers, doctors and police do.

The finance ministers from Greece and the other 16 countries that use the euro wrangled until the early morning over the details of the rescue, squeezing last-minute concessions out of private holders of Greek debt who agreed to lose 53.5 percent of the face value of their investment to avoid even more severe losses expected if Greece fails to pay euro14.5 billion in debt coming due March 20.

The fear is that an uncontrolled bankruptcy could unleash market panic across the rest of the continent, further unsettling other struggling other debt-stricken countries such as Ireland, Portugal or the much bigger Italy or Spain.

Serious risks of failure include the chance that Greece’s economy remains in a deep recession _ where it’s been for four straight years _ instead of returning to growth in 2013 as the deal assumes. That would undermine chances of paying even the reduced debt load, estimated at a still-high 120 percent of annual economic output in 2020, down from 160 percent now.

Additionally, political outrage over the cutbacks could lead Greece politicians to balk at the tough conditions. That could push rescuer countries _ led by Germany _ to cut off further funding.

Elections in Greece are expected in April. The leaders of the two main parties have committed to the cuts and reform program, but anti-bailout parties have been gaining in the polls.

Growth is the key. But Greece’s economy shrank 7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and unemployment is 19 percent, a consequence of cuts in public wages and increased taxes inflicted during a downturn.

If that keeps up, even the rescuers acknowledge the reduction goal of 120 percent of GDP is long gone.

Success “really depends on the assumptions you make in terms of growth and interest rates,” said Diego Iscaro, an economist at IHS Global Insight. “The risks are clearly on the downside. The main risk comes from the economic situation, the economic dire straits.”

“By austerity alone, Greece will not solve the problems it has at the moment. We don’t know when the economy will return to growth and how it will grow.”

Unless something breaks the cycle of austerity and contraction “something will have to give.”

Even if it later balks at the conditions for the bailout, Greece would have difficulty writing down the new debt it issued to private bondholders, who demanded stronger legal protections. Official creditors _ the IMF, the eurozone countries and the European Central Bank _ would also have difficulty accepting more writedowns. Inability to pay _ or unwillingness to accept the harsh conditions _ could lead to a non-negotiated “hard” default that could end in Greece leaving the euro.

The eurozone and the International Monetary Fund hope the new program will eventually put Greece back into a position where it can survive without external support. Both private and official creditors went beyond what they had said was possible in the past. On top of the new rescue loans, Athens will also ask banks and other investment funds to forgive it some euro107 billion ($142 billion) in debt, while the European Central Bank and national central banks in the eurozone will forgo profits on their holdings.

The deal “closes the door to an uncontrolled default that would be chaos for Greece and Greek people,” said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

But despite those unprecedented efforts, it was clear that Greece was at the very best starting on a long and painful road to recovery. It is being pushed to make its economy more business-friendly and productive by opening access to closed trades and professions; halting rampant tax evasion; allowing more flexibility in wage bargaining between companies and unions; simplifying starting a business; and cutting its bureaucracy.

But those measures will take years to work _ if Greece’s politicians are willing or able to push them through.

“It’s not an easy (program), it’s an ambitious one,” said Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, adding that there were significant risks that Greece’s economy could not grow as much as hoped.

Including Greece’s first bailout worth euro110 billion ($146 billion), the new deal means every Greek man, woman and child will owe the eurozone and the IMF about euro22,000 ($29,000).

In Athens, the reaction to the news was a mixture of relief the country has avoided financial catastrophe and fear of a dark future.

“I don’t see it with any joy because again we’re being burdened with loans, loans, loans, with no end in sight,” architect Valia Rokou said in the Greek capital.

Greek politicians nevertheless greeted the package as a turning point for their battered country.

“It’s no exaggeration to say that today is a historic day for the Greek economy,” said Greek Premier Lucas Papademos, who had rushed to the finance ministers’ meeting to lend weight to his country’s pleas for help.

For those who Greece owes money, the bond swap will lop euro107 billion off Greece’s euro352 billion load. On top of that, investors will be asked to give Athens 30 years to repay them, compared with just under 7 years.

Average interest rates would fall to 3.65 percent from around 4.8 percent.

Overall losses for private bondholders would be above 70 percent when accounting for the new bonds’ longer repayment period and lower interest rate.

Private investors weren’t the only ones having to give ground. The eurozone countries will reduce the interest that Greece has to pay for its first package of bailout loans to 1.5 percentage points over market rates from between 2 percentage points to 3 percentage points currently.

At the same time, the European Central Bank and the national central banks in the countries that use the euro will forgo profits on their Greek debt holdings, again reducing the costs for Greece.

But several hurdles remain before Greece will see any of the money or other benefits of the new program.

Apart from the implementation of more than 30 different savings and reform measures by Greece, the new bailout has to be debated by parliaments in several member states, including Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.

The IMF also still has to decide how much of the euro130 billion bill it is willing to stump up. Going into the meeting, the Washington-based fund had indicated its contribution will be lower than the one-third of the total it has provided in previous bailouts.

IMF chief Lagarde said the fund’s board would decide on its contribution in the second week of March.

“In doing so it will have in mind the overall program, but also additional matters such as the proper setting up of a decent firewall,” Lagarde said with reference to Europe’s current and future bailout funds.

At the moment, the overall ceiling for eurozone rescue loans has been set at euro500 billion ($663 billion), much of which has already been committed to Ireland, Portugal and now Greece. Euro leaders will decide at their summit in early March whether that ceiling should be increased.

On top of that, it will also take some time to see how many private creditors will participate in the debt relief and how many will have to be forced to sign up through new legal clauses. The representatives of the private bondholders said they were confident that investors would find the deal attractive, but some analysts fear that imposing losses on even some bondholders may destabilize markets.

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Asking prices for London homes rose to close to a record in February, helping push national values up the most in almost a decade, Rightmove Plc said.

Average asking prices in the U.K. capital rose 2.5 percent from January to 449,252 pounds ($710,300), less than 1,000 pounds below the record reached in October, the operator of Britain

Iraq’s prime minister says all intelligence or tips about weapons smuggling and insurgent travel from Iraq to Syria must be investigated _ no matter how weak the information may be.

Nouri al-Maliki on Saturday ordered a review of Iraq’s 363 miles (605 kilometers) of border with Syria to clamp down on illegal traffic between the two counties.

Last week, U.S. intelligence chief James Clapper said a series of bombings against the Syrian regime in recent months in Damascus and Aleppo bear the hallmarks of al-Qaida instant payday loan lenders. Iraqi and U.S. officials believe some of the terror fighters may be coming to Syria from Iraq.

In a statement, al-Maliki identified weapons smuggling as a top problem.

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A few members of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting said the central bank may soon have to consider more asset purchases, while others said the economic outlook would have to deteriorate first.

A few members said economic conditions

In his first 100 days as European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi has taken unprecedented action to tackle the sovereign debt crisis. Greece may push him even further into unknown territory.

Draghi will today face questions on the ECB

European leaders maintained pressure on Greece to accept terms demanded by international lenders during a weekend of talks to avert a financial collapse.

Interim Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos struck a tentative deal with party leaders to boost economic competitiveness and extend spending cuts after euro-area finance chiefs told them an increase in the 130 billion-euro ($170 billion) aid package wasn

At long last, the Holy Grail of Internet IPOs is here. Facebook filed Wednesday to raise $5 billion in an initial public offering.

In 2011, Facebook earned $1 billion on sales of $3.7 billion. As of December 31, Facebook had 845 million monthly active users.

The company crossed the line into profitability in 2009, five years after it launched in founder Mark Zuckerberg’s Harvard dorm room. Facebook earned $229 million that year on sales of $777 million, and has remained profitable ever since.

It’s not yet known on which stock exchange Facebook will trade, though it said it plans to use the ticker symbol "FB."

Facebook will likely re-file its paperwork several times over the coming months. Those updates will add more details and could even restate some of the financial information detailed in Wednesday’s filing.

In this initial paperwork, companies don’t declare how many shares they’re going to sell, or how much those shares will cost. Those details will be added in an updated filing shortly before trading begins.

Without that share price information, Facebook’s valuation is still speculative.

Facebook has its own guesses, though. The company said it conducted its own valuation of its stock at the end of each quarter, and as of December 31 determined it to be worth $29.73 a share.

Zuckerberg’s letter to investors: ‘Hacker Way’

Revenue breakdown: Advertising accounted for 85% of Facebook’s 2011 revenue, or almost $3.2 billion.

Facebook’s other revenue stream is its payment system for purchases within apps and games: Facebook Credits. Facebook keeps 30% of the revenue from those payments, and passes the remaining 70% on to the app developer.

Those fees brought in $557 million for Facebook last year.

Revenue from Zynga, which makes FarmVille and other games played on Facebook, represented 12% of Facebook’s total revenue in 2011.

About 44% of Facebook’s revenue came from overseas last year, compared with 38% in 2010 and 33% in 2009.

As of December 31, Facebook had $3.9 billion in cash and liquid assets.

Exec compensation: Another choice tidbit: In 2011, Facebook CEO Zuckerberg raked in a $500,000 base salary. But he requested — and will receive — only $1 per year in salary starting January 1, 2013.

Don’t feel too bad for Zuck, who remains the largest shareholder in the company he created. His total compensation in 2011 came to $1.48 million, according to Facebook’s calculations.

He was one of the lowest-paid among Facebook’s executive ranks. Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg topped the list with a total package Facebook estimated at $30.9 million, almost all of it in stock.

Engineering VP Mike Schroepfer made an estimated $24.7 million — again, mostly in stock — while CFO David Ebersman collected an $18.7 million pay package. (For more on Ebersman, see Fortune’s profile: "The man behind the Facebook IPO.")

As far as the regular rank-and-file at Facebook, the company had 3,200 full-time employees as of December 31. That was a 50% increase from the previous year, and Facebook said it "expect[s] this growth to continue for the foreseeable future."

Facebook also noted that it has bought out some small companies mainly to acquire employees, and said that it intends to continue that strategy.

How much Facebook is worth: Trading won’t begin for several months, as Facebook now has to field questions from regulators and court investors for its stock sale.

Most analysts estimate Facebook’s valuation will fall somewhere between $85 billion to $100 billion. But the value of Web companies can be extremely volatile.

A recent example: Zynga (). The FarmVille maker’s IPO filing reported that it valued its shares in August 2011 at $17.20 each, which gave the company a valuation of $14 billion. But when Zynga went public in December, shares sold for just $10 — valuing the company at $7 billion.

Several other Internet companies made their public debuts in 2011, but the end of the year proved to be a turbulent time for the sector. Shares of Groupon (), Pandora (), Zillow (), LinkedIn () and Angie’s List () all suffered steep double-digit losses for November, though most clawed back at least a bit in December or January. 

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Leaders of the world

The last big name from the old days at Anheuser-Busch is leaving Pestalozzi Street.

Dave Peacock, who went from August Busch IV’s right-hand man to Carlos Brito’s U.S. point man, resigned from Anheuser-Busch InBev Monday, a move some see as one of the final steps of the brewery’s transition to new ownership.

The 43-year-old – a second-generation A-B employee who met his wife on his first day of work there – says the parting was his idea, and amicable. He’ll remain an adviser to the company, but he wants to do something else while he’s still young enough to do so.

“I’ve been really blessed,” Peacock said. “When you grow up in St. Louis and your dad works for the brewery, you never even dream you’re going to have a shot at the job I had. But it’s time to try something different.”

In leaving, according to regulatory filings, Peacock appears to be walking away from stock options that would today be worth roughly $28 million. The arrangement required that he stay five years after the merger and that the company meet financial targets. It was unclear Monday if he received other compensation upon resigning.

Peacock’s departure comes three years into a transition that has seen many of the brewer’s top local executives leave, and as A-B InBev searches for ways to grow its iconic Budweiser and Bud Light brands despite a tough economy for big beer. The well-liked Peacock – whose title was president of Anheuser-Busch - was in charge of U.S. operations for A-B InBev. He played a key role in helping the Belgian-Brazilian conglomerate absorb its big acquisition, said Tom Pirko, managing director of Bevmark, a food industry consulting firm.

Now, with the takeover fading in the rearview mirror, the challenges are different.

“They’re in to Phase Two now,” Pirko said. “Phase Two is an ability to stabilize and grow the business. That requires new thinking, new blood. The company’s got to deliver in a way that it hasn’t been delivering in the last few years.”

That job will fall to Luiz Edmond, a Brazilian who has been been A-B InBev’s North America zone president, and Peacock’s boss, since the takeover. He’s been based in St. Louis and will remain here, and add Peacock’s U.S. duties to his portfolio.

“Dave has been a great colleague, embracing and leading many changes that we agreed would be difficult, but that would ultimately benefit the U.S. business in the long term,” Edmond said in an e-mail to employees Monday. “He has helped Brito, me and the global and zone management teams in transitioning the company in many ways over the last three years.”

Peacock had worked at Anheuser-Busch since 1992 and rose through the ranks to become its vice president of marketing and a close confidant of August Busch IV. He bled Budweiser, colleagues said, and was widely seen as a rising star in the industry.

Peacock played a crucial role in the days after Anheuser-Busch agreed to InBev’s terms in July 2008. He joined Busch – and did most of the St. Louis brewery’s talking – on a Monday morning conference call with Brito announcing the deal. The next day, according to Dethroning the King, a book by writer Julie McIntosh that chronicles the takeover, it was Peacock who gave Brito a ride to the brewery for his first visit as the new boss.

Peacock’s efforts were noticed, and he was alone among top A-B executives in having a major role at the new company. For the last three years, he helped to manage cuts, smooth relations with employees and distributors, and served as A-B InBev’s face in the U.S., including St. Louis.

But some industry-watchers suspect Peacock had had his fill. The business keeps getting tougher for big brewers, said Harry Schumacher, publisher of trade publication Beer Business Daily. Craft beers and spirits are eating market share, and more fights likely loom with distributors.

“They’re really getting sandwiched from both sides, and they’re going to need some changes,” Schumacher said. “I don’t think Dave wanted to go down that road and be the bad cop.”

In an interview Monday, Peacock said he’d been mulling the move for about a year, and that he’s leaving Anheuser-Busch in good hands, both with Brito and Edmond and with a core of U.S.-based executives who worked under him. He’s not sure what he plans to do next, but said he thinks he’ll stay in St. Louis, where his family lives and his children are in school.

And as for leaving behind those stock options – which were likely to start paying out in less than two years – he said it’s not really about the money.

“I didn’t really mind leaving that money on the table,” Peacock said. “It was just the right time for me.”

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An official at the main airport serving Yemen’s capital says that protesting troops have closed the runways with armored vehicles, demanding that the commander of the country’s air force be replaced.

The garrison at Sanaa airport’s attached military air base is demanding the removal of Maj. Gen. Mohammed Saleh, the brother of outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the official says.

He says the Sunday protest has caused two flights to be diverted to the airport at the southern city of Yemen.

Another official at the airport in the southern city of Taiz says troops there have been staging a similar protest demanding the ouster of their commander since Saturday. Both officials spoke anonymously in accordance with regulations.

Yemen has experienced an 11-month uprising against Saleh’s rule.

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