11/27/2009 (12:30 am)

Fannie Mae to tighten lending standards: report

Filed under: management |

Fannie Mae plans to raise minimum credit score requirements next month and limit the amount of overall debt that borrowers can carry relative to their incomes, The Washington Post reported on Thursday.

Starting December 12, the automated system that the government-controlled mortgage finance company uses to approve loans will reject borrowers who have at least a 20 percent down payment but whose credit scores fall below 620 out of 850, the newspaper reported. Previously, the cut-off was 580.

Also, for borrowers with a 20 percent down payment, no more than 45 percent of their gross monthly income can go toward paying debts, the newspaper said.

A Fannie Mae spokesman told the newspaper that the limits reflect the company’s recent experience.

Loans to people with credit scores below 620 fell seriously behind at a rate approximately nine times higher than other loans purchased in the same period, Fannie Mae spokesman Brian Faith said. Loans taken out by borrowers with lots of debt also suffer higher levels of serious delinquency, he said.

“It’s not enough to help borrowers buy a home — we must also ensure that they can stay in the home over the long term,” Faith said in a statement to The Washington Post.

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09/17/2009 (4:03 pm)

The planes, trains and automobiles rally

Filed under: management |

If you’re looking for confirmation that this stock market rally might actually be for real, look no further than the stodgy world of transportation.

The Dow Jones Transportation average hit a new high for the year in mid-August and has continued to climb since then, closing above the 4,000 level on Monday for the first time since November.

And some investing experts think this is an extremely encouraging sign for the economy at large.

Now you might wonder how relevant the transportation sector is these days. Railroad stocks? This is the age of Google, Facebook and Twitter, not the era of robber barons.

Of course, that’s true. But the transportation sector is still a vital part of the economy because it is a key gauge of consumer spending.

Without trains, boats, trucks and planes to ship all those netbooks and iPhones to warehouses and retailers, there would be no mobile gadgets available to buy and you wouldn’t be able to tweet and update your status on the go.

"If transportation stocks are getting tanked, that means people believe that nothing is getting shipped. The move higher may mean that the economy is bottoming — even though we’re not out of the woods yet," said Frank Ingarra, Jr., co-portfolio manager with Hennessy Funds, a money management firm with about $850 million in assets.

So the spike in the Dow Jones Transportation average, or the transports for short, is worth exploring. The transports consist of 20 key companies within the sector, including leading railroads Union Pacific (UNP, Fortune 500) and CSX (CSX, Fortune 500), airlines JetBlue (JBLU) and Southwest (LUV, Fortune 500), and several truckers and maritime shippers.

And according to a trading rule known as the Dow Theory, it’s often considered a bullish sign when the transports and their far more well-known counterpart, the Dow Jones industrial average, both are doing well.

Usually, investors look for one average to "confirm" the other, which means that if one of the two hits a new high for a certain period of time, the other average should also soon hit a new high if the rally has legs.

With the transports now comfortably above the January level of around 3,737, investors got the confirmation they were hoping for: The Dow 30 hit a new high back in late July and hasn’t looked back since.

One big reason that the transports have surged — the average is up more than 85% from the March lows — is that airline stocks are no longer being priced as if every carrier is on a one-way flight to Chapter 11.

The major airlines traded at extremely distressed levels earlier this year but have roared back on hopes that oil prices are stabilizing and that travel will pick up as the economy recovers absolutely free credit report.

But airlines aren’t the only group in the transport sector to improve on expectations of better times ahead. Last Friday, one of the largest components of the transports, shipper FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500), surprised Wall Street by saying that profits for the next two quarters would be better than expected.

That news helped push shares of FedEx more than 6% higher on Friday and lifted the stock of UPS (UPS, Fortune 500), its top rival and fellow Dow Jones Transportation component, by nearly 4.5%.

The upbeat outlook from FedEx could be a good omen for the broader economy since it may mean that consumers and businesses are becoming more willing to loosen up their purse strings.

John Kosar, director of research with Asbury Research in Chicago, said there are signs that this may be happening in other areas of the financial markets as well.

"A lot of people look at copper as an economic barometer since rising prices could mean that more goods are being made. The performance of the transports is letting you know if goods are being shipped. So that’s why they have significance and meeting," he said.

The better-than-expected retail sales for August also appears to confirm that there is a nascent consumer recovery.

Jason Seidl, an analyst with Dahlman & Rose, a boutique investment firm based in New York that covers the transportation, energy and agricultural industries, said he’s cautiously optimistic that business is turning around for railroads and truckers.

He said there has been a pickup in auto shipments thanks to the government’s Cash for Clunkers program and added that demand to ship chemicals and steel is increasing as well. But, he cautioned, sales and profits for transportation companies are still likely to be lower than a year ago over the next quarter or two.

"We’ve seen an uptick off the bottom but we’re not ready to declare victory yet. On an absolute basis, the numbers still don’t look great," he said.

So will this transportation rally continue? FedEx will release its full results on September 17, so it will be interesting to hear if executives are witnessing a real increase in demand or if its new profit guidance is being driven more by lower expenses.

If FedEx executives don’t sound too excited about their sales outlook, that could be a cause for concern.

Talkback: Is the recent increase in consumer spending a sign the recession may be over? Are you starting to spend more again? Share your comments below. 

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09/10/2009 (9:36 am)

Doctors slash vaccines due to rising costs

Filed under: management |

Parents who bring their kids to Dr. G. Andrew McIntosh for the chicken pox vaccine are out of luck.

The family physician, who has a solo practice in Uniontown, Ohio, doesn’t offer that shot because he can’t afford it. Most insurers won’t sufficiently cover the cost.

"It doesn’t do me any good. I am losing money on [them]," he said. The chicken pox vaccine runs about $115, but insurers only cover between $68 to $83 of that.

McIntosh has also cut back on a handful of other critical childhood vaccines for the same reason — including the measles, mumps and rubella, known as the MMR vaccine.

It costs him about $58 to buy an MMR shot, he said, while insurers pay about about $40.

So McIntosh keeps a lot less of the MMR on hand. If a patient needs the shot and he doesn’t have it, he sends them to a nearby public health clinic.

"I’m not happy to do that," he said. "The clinic is far, the service isn’t great and my patients aren’t happy to go there."

Although he says he "feels compelled" to take care of people, he adds, "I can’t save the world and pay for my staff," he said. "As we say, ‘no margin, no mission.’"

"I’ve lost a fair number of kids [at the practice] because I’ve had to send them elsewhere for their shots," he said.

Alarming numbers

It’s not clear exactly how widespread vaccine cutbacks are, but in a recent industry survey, 5% of pediatricians and 11% of physicians indicated that they’re seriously considering no longer offering immunizations. Currently there are about 350,000 pediatricians and family physicians in the U.S.

"These are fantastically alarming numbers," said Dr. Richard Lander, a Livingston N.J.-based pediatrician who chairs a committee on administration and practices at the American Academy of Pediatricians. (AAP)

"It’s an example of how health care is being driven by managed care in the United States," Lander said.

Doctors have to absorb any costs that insurance doesn’t cover because in most states insurance contracts prohibit providers from charging patients the difference.

Dr. Jim King, a family physician in Selmer, Tenn. is another medical professional who is dropping expensive vaccines because of "insufficient" reimbursement from insurers.

"The vaccine for shingles is fairly expensive, about $75 to $150 per vaccine," said King, who is also board chair of the American Academy of Family Physicians.

"The profit margin on it is very small, so we’re not giving that. If we lose money on one, we need to administer nine to break even," he said. Like McIntosh, doctors at King’s practice are referring patients to public clinics for shots that they no longer administer.

The economics work a little better in the case of influenza vaccines, which can cost between $7 to about $33 per vaccine, according to the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. So King is stocking up on the flu vaccine.

The threat to public health

Public health experts are particularly worried about doctors dropping vaccinations.

Dr. Lance Rodewald, head of the Immunization Services Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, points to the consequences this trend has had on public health in the past.

"Between 1989 to 1991, a number of doctors stopped providing vaccinations to children because of financing issues," he said free credit reports.

Instead, doctors referred patients to public health clinics for shots like the MMR. But many parents failed to follow up on those shots, Rodewald said, and their toddlers were never immunized.

The result: The situation led to 55,000 cases of measles, 11,000 hospitalizations and 123 toddler deaths.

The CDC found that more than half of the children who had contracted the measles had not been vaccinated, even though many of them had seen a health care provider.

"This is why we are taking attitudes of doctors very seriously when they say they are delaying buying vaccines pending insurance coverage, or that they could stop vaccinating because of declining revenues," Rodewald said.

The CDC maintains that vaccination rates for most child and adolescent vaccines are currently about 80% in the United States.

Hidden costs

Vaccines of all kinds represent the largest operating expense for some doctors, according to the AAP.

The problem: Most insurers pay providers just the base cost of the vaccine. So if it costs $120 to buy a particular vaccine, insurance would pay back $120. But Lander points out that there are a lot more expenses that go into providing a vaccine, including the refrigeration, electricity and insurance required to store the shots. On average, doctors keep $100,000 to $150,000 worth of vaccines on hand each year.

The AAP estimates that the actual cost to providers to acquire vaccines could be 17% to 28% above the price of the vaccine itself.

"This is America. Running a private practice is a business," said Lander. "It’s not $120 but closer to $140 for me to break even," said Lander.

The insurance industry acknowledged that "there is always a natural tension between health plans and providers about payment," said Susan Pisano, spokeswoman for America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP).

Then there’s the cost to doctors of the office visit to administer a shot. Lander maintains that a majority of insurers are inadequately paying doctors for this service, too.

"When a patient comes to my practice for shots, a nurse will explain what shots will be given, hand out pamphlets and complete paperwork," he said.

Reimbursements for administration fees range anywhere between 60% to 100% of the cost depending on a doctor’s contract with the insurer.

"Managed care had decreased [overall] access to health care because of poor pay to providers," Lander said.

McIntosh agreed. "I enjoy seeing kids. It’s joyful to see a baby and watch them grow up healthy," McIntosh said. "But I am giving that up because I can’t give them the shots they need."

He said more of his patients now are the elderly. "It makes me sad how the dynamics of my practice have changed," he said.

Talkback: Have you or a doctor that you know left the medical profession mid-career to start a new career outside of the health care industry? E-mail your story to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  

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09/05/2009 (3:12 am)

U.S. says European subsidies have harmed Boeing

Filed under: management |

The United States confirmed on Friday it has received a confidential World Trade Organization ruling in its multibillion-dollar complaint against European government support for Airbus.

“We are still reviewing the interim report, which is over 1,000 pages long. Because the interim report is confidential, we cannot discuss the contents,” said Debbie Mesloh, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Trade Representative’s office.

“The United States has always maintained that the European governments have provided unfair subsidies to Airbus that harm U.S. interest,” Mesloh added, alluding to Airbus’ U.S. rival Boeing, which pressed USTR to bring the case.

“In this dispute, the United States is challenging dozens of measures providing over billions of dollars in subsidies to Airbus, including launch aid to every major Airbus aircraft model,” she added free business cards.

Since the United States brought the case in 2004, the governments of France, Germany, Spain and Britain have continued to provide contested “launch aid loans” for Airbus.

The European aircraft manufacturer’s latest project is the A350 wide-body jet. Boeing officials have said they hoped Friday’s confidential decision would halt some $4 billion in European launch aid loans for that aircraft.

“The dispute has proven to be one of the most complex and lengthy disputes under the WTO,” Mesloh said.

(Reporting by Doug Palmer; editing by Paul Simao)

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07/07/2009 (3:39 pm)

Jobs report slams stocks

Filed under: management |

Stocks tumbled Thursday, with the Dow losing 212 points, after a worse-than-expected jobs report hammered hopes that the economy is close to stabilizing.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 212 points, or 2.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 27 points, or 2.9% and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 49 points, or 2.7%.

The New York Stock Exchange extended trading until 4:15 p.m. ET, so as to allow customers to put through orders that were impacted by system irregularities. The NYSE did not specify what the irregularities were.

Stocks tumbled at the open and remained in the red throughout the session as investors considered the broader implications of the dismal June jobs report.

"The report was kind of a rude awakening and unfortunately I think there’s more to come," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

"People are realizing that the stock market rally doesn’t mean the economy is coming back."

Since bottoming at a 12-year low, the S&P 500 had surged over 40% through June 11. But in the weeks since then, it has lost 5% of that.

Jobs report: Employers cut 467,000 jobs from their payrolls in June, after cutting 322,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That made June the first month in four in which job losses rose from the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 365,000 job losses.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 9.5% from 9.4%, short of forecasts for an increase to 9.6%.

"The report was terrible," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc."It’s telling us that there is a lot more pain than people realize that we are going to have to get through before there can be a recovery."

On the move: Declines were broad based, with all 30 Dow stocks falling, led by oil components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) were the other big losers.

Economically sensitive trucking and railroad stocks plunged, dragging down the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average by 3.7%.

Financial shares tumbled, including Dow components American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was negative and volume was light with Wall Street pros checking out early for the holiday. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by over four to one on volume of 733 million shares fast cash advance. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers five to one on volume of 1.95 billion shares.

All financial markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

Weak start to new quarter: Stocks climbed Wednesday on the first day of the third quarter as investors found some encouragement in the day’s housing and manufacturing reports. But the advance lost steam Thursday, with the jobs report giving investors a reason to retreat after a strong second quarter.

In the April-through-June period, the S&P 500 gained 15.2%, its best quarter in more than a decade. The Dow rose 11% and the Nasdaq 20%. Both indexes posted their best quarters since the second of 2003. Stocks rallied on hopes that the economy was starting to stabilize after the six months of panic that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September.

But lately, stocks have churned on concerns that the market got ahead of itself.

Economic news: Normally a market mover, the weekly jobless claims report was overshadowed by the June payrolls report.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 614,000 last week from a revised 630,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported. Economists thought claims would fall to 615,000.

May factory orders rose 1.2%, the Commerce Department reported, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.9%. Factory orders rose a revised 0.5% in April.

Company news: In deal news, Exelon (EXC, Fortune 500) has sweetened its hostile takeover offer for rival power generator NRG Energy (NRG, Fortune 500). The all-stock offer is $8 billion versus the previous offer of $7 billion.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) will take an 18% equity stake in biotech Elan (ELN) in exchange for a $1 billion investment. J&J will also buy Elan’s share of its Alzheimer’s disease treatment program with Wyeth.

U.S.-traded shares of Elan gained 11% in active New York Stock Exchange trading.

Commodities: Energy prices tumbled, with U.S. light crude oil for August delivery falling $2.37 to $66.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $10.60 to settle at $930.70 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the benchmark 10-year note yield to 3.5% from 3.53%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trade, Asian and European markets ended lower.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen. 

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07/01/2009 (3:33 am)

Meet Buffett’s $2.1 million lunch partner

Filed under: management |

Plunking down $2.11 million for a steak lunch might seem a tad bit excessive, even to a successful hedge fund manager.

But for Zhao Danyang it was a small price to pay to dine with Warren Buffett, the man whose strategy Zhao studied to make sense of the investing world.

The manager of Hong Kong-based Pure Heart Asset Management won the lunch date in an annual online charity auction a year ago. The money goes toward the Glide Foundation, an organization that fights poverty and homelessness in the San Francisco area.

The three-hour meal of steak and seafood at Manhattan’s Smith & Wollensky steakhouse, which picked up the tab, puts Zhao in the same company as the likes of David Einhorn of hedge fund Greenlight Capital. Einhorn won the lunch for a bargain $250,100 in 2003.

Buffett joined Zhao and seven of his friends and family members, but the Oracle of Omaha wasn’t the only savvy investor at the table. Zhao says his fund has had a 600% return over six years. Even Buffett had to be impressed.

But Zhao, 37, pointed to the iconic investor as the influence behind his strategy: "Over the last few years I made money," he told Fortune the day after the lunch, "I contribute my success to Warren."

A decade ago Zhao owned a small consumer-electronics company in China and had some money in the stock market. But when the Asian financial markets collapsed in the late 1990s, Zhao lost a significant amount of money.

"I was very angry with myself," he says. "I said to myself, I’m never going to buy stock anymore."

That all changed after he read a book that outlined Buffett’s investment strategy. It made him understand stocks in a way he never had before, Zhao says, and he became committed to the idea of value investing. In 2000 he got back into the market and soon launched his own hedge fund.

This was not the first time Zhao had seen Buffett in person. The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) invited him out to his annual shareholders meeting in May in Omaha. But this time around he actually had the chance to pick his brain.

"He’s so famous, but he’s just like your friend," Zhao said guaranteed online personal loans.

Buffett has been closed-mouthed about the lunchtime conversation. "That guy just paid $2 million [for] my advice," Buffett told the New York Daily News. "I’m not going to give it to you for free."

Zhao recounted that he and Buffett did not talk about the short-term outlook, saying that as long-term investors it’s irrelevant to them. But they did discuss economic cycles, a concept Zhao said was relatively new to him and to China.

They talked too about Buffett’s philanthropic work. Zhao wanted to know why Buffett gave his money to the Gates Foundation instead of starting an organization of his own. Buffett told him that for the same reason people gave Buffett their money to invest because they believed he could allocate capital effectively, the billionaire gave his money to Gates because Buffett thinks Gates can do the same thing in the philanthropic world.

Zhao’s 5-year-old son also was at the lunch, and Buffett told him he was fortunate to be born in China today. Both the U.S. and China will do well in the next 20 years, he said, but China will grow more quickly and provide serious opportunities.

"He said if he had a choice, he would like to be my son, lucky just like when he grew up in the U.S.," Zhao said.

Zhao was in the U.S. for 10 days on business in addition to the lunch, but in between his full schedule he managed to put down an offer on a New York City apartment. He’s also thinking about opening up an office in the U.S. down the road.

"I want to live here and study everything here to learn more about America," he says. "[The U.S.] will do well in the future so it’s a good time to invest now."

The bidding for next year’s lunch runs through today. But not just anyone can join Buffett for a steak. All bidders must pre-qualify and have at least $25,000 lying around for the opening bid. Hours before the close, the bidding had reached $350,000. 

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06/16/2009 (2:06 am)

BlackRock in $13.5 billion BGI deal

Filed under: management |

British bank Barclays confirmed on Friday that it had agreed to sell its BGI investment arm to U.S. firm BlackRock for $13.5 billion, creating the world’s biggest asset manager.

Barclays (BCS) said in a statement that a net gain of $8.8 billion would be used to bolster its capital strength, boosting its core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio by 1.5 percentage points.

The cash and shares deal for Barclays Global Investors (BGI), unveiled in the United States late on Thursday, will see Barclays take a 19.9% stake and two seats on the board of the enlarged group, to be called BlackRock Global Investors.

Shares in Barclays were trading down 1.5% by 0725 GMT on Friday, having risen earlier this week ahead of confirmation of the widely-anticipated deal.

BlackRock (BLK, Fortune 500) is paying $6.6 billion in cash and the rest in stock and said it is raising $2.8 billion from the sale of 19.9 million shares to a group of unnamed institutional investors.

Shares in BlackRock last traded up 2.3% in New York on Thursday at $182.60.

For Barclays the deal will strengthen its balance sheet after the bank refused aid from the British government that some of its rivals accepted as the global financial crisis engulfed the industry cheapest car insurance.

Including the impact from the conversion of mandatory convertible notes issued in November 2008, Barclays said its core Tier 1 ratio would have been 8% at the end of 2008.

Barclays also said its trading performance up to the end of May had been "generally consistent" with trends reported at the time of its interim statement on May 7.

Barclays has agreed not to sell any of its BlackRock shares in the first year without the asset manager’s consent, and no more than half its holding in the second year.

The bank’s Chief Executive John Varley and President Bob Diamond will each get a seat on BlackRock’s board.

Diamond will receive a net consideration of $36 million before any deductions from shares he holds in BGI. He will have paid $10 million to acquire the shares since 2003, Barclays said.

Other BGI staff are in line for a windfall from a lucrative employee share ownership plan. If they exercise options staff will own 9% of BGI.  

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06/03/2009 (12:24 am)

Auto rupture will ripple far and wide

Filed under: management |

Chrysler and GM employees are on the edge of their seats, waiting to find out what will be left standing after the dust settles. Meanwhile, a vast network of companies outside Detroit are bracing for impact.

Ready or not, the thousands of dealerships and suppliers to the auto goliaths are going to feel the aftershocks of the industry’s titanic shift. But the owners have mixed feelings about what the future holds for their companies.

Caught between the bankruptcy of Chrysler and the bankruptcy of General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) is Patrick Berrang of Waynesboro, Va., one of the nearly 800 dealers who received a note from Chrysler saying that his dealer agreement had been severed. Before he received the letter, 70% of Berrang’s business was Chrysler vehicles and the remainder was GM brands such as Pontiac, GMC and Cadillac.

"I hope the judge is sympathetic," Berrang says of his petition to remain a Chrysler dealer. "I didn’t see this coming at all. Now, they’ve only given me three weeks to shut down, but if I had sent in an application to become a Chrysler dealer, it would take more than three weeks for them to get back to me!"

GM has said it plans to pare its network of 6,000 dealerships to as few as 3,600 by next year, and Chrysler is seeking to terminate nearly 800 dealers. The jobs of tens of thousands of employees are at stake.

Berrang has 30 employees, but anticipates scaling that down to eight or fewer, depending on the outcome of his Chrysler petition and GM’s bankruptcy ultimatums. He says that if GM cuts him loose, he’ll be forced to sell only used cars to keep his business alive.

"The worst case scenario is losing both franchises. If that happened, it would take a miracle to seek and sign up with another franchise," Berrang says.

Suppliers are also in limbo at the moment, awaiting news of which vehicle lines will live to see another day online cash advance. But while some suppliers are struggling to stay alive, others are well positioned to take advantage of the auto manufacturers’ new business models.

Robert Adams, vice president of manufacturing at Camaco LLC, is excited to see that GM is focusing on cutting costs by direct sourcing from tier two suppliers like his company. Camaco makes seat frames, headrests and armrests and traditionally passes those parts to tier one suppliers who assemble them and pass the completed car seat to the OEM.

Several years ago, Camaco, based in Novi, Mich., started working directly with Ford, alongside Ford’s tier one suppliers, to create seats for its new lines of cars.

"It didn’t make us a tier one supplier, but it sort of made us a tier one-and-a-half supplier," Adams explains. "And the result was that we could get more direct access to the OEM, better take care of the engineering requirements and generally be more efficient."

Adams says that in his 40 years working in the automotive industry, this downturn is the most insidious yet. He has had to shrink overhead and reduce staff in areas of Camaco that make products for large vehicles. But he’s optimistic that if GM emerges to follow in the footsteps of Ford (F, Fortune 500), his company will be poised to increase business with them.

Berrang hopes for his dealership’s sake that GM, regardless of its new business model, will treat him better than Chrysler did if the company chooses to close his doors.

"I hope they will at least honor the current dealer agreements through October 2010," he says. "I hope they give us 60 to 90 days notice if they don’t renew it, followed by a chance to appeal it." 

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06/02/2009 (1:15 am)

Parties off at asset-backed securities conference

Filed under: management |

Bankers, investors and issuers at the asset-backed securities industry’s biggest event on Tuesday will again be debating how to revive the market, uncosseted by the top chefs and pop star entertainers of prior years.

With the market comatose since the start of the credit crisis, fewer people will be attending, and lavish parties are off the agenda.

The two-day Global ABS conference moves to London from Cannes last year and Barcelona in 2007, when the subprime crisis began. The event will host 2,500 people, 500 fewer than last year and 1,000 down on the year before.

“The mood in Cannes was gloomy, but it was too late to cancel anything. There will certainly be a lot less entertainment this time round,” said one banker who declined to be named.

“But I think we’ll see more interesting content and discussions … It’s all about how the market can be kick-started again,” the banker said.

The value of ABS — instruments used by banks to offload risk on mortgages or consumer loans from their balance sheets — has plummeted during the credit crunch.

Excluding deals retained on bank balance sheets for collateral purposes, mortgage-backed ABS issuance has evaporated to just $1.5 billion in 2009 from $18 billion in 2008 and $373 billion in 2007, Thomson Reuters data show.

Since the last annual conference, the financial landscape has changed dramatically with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and other major bank bailouts same day payday loans.

Major buyers of ABS in the boom years, such as structured investment vehicles (SIVs), conduits and hedge funds, have also been driven out of the market by the subprime crisis.

“The market was still in shock last year,” said Allen Twyning, a credit analyst at Aviva Investors. “What is going to be interesting now is whether issuance will come back and how. And who is going to buy it?”

SEEING VALUE

Some funds are becoming more active in the market.

Fund manager Henderson Group said last week it was poised to launch its first ABS fund to take advantage of beaten-down prices in the sector, which some experts say do not reflect underlying credit risk.

Abbey National’s Holmes Trust, considered as a good proxy for the market, with 30 to 40 billion pounds’ ($46-$62 billion) worth of mortgage assets, has seen only 1 to 2 percent of arrears for example, one banker said.

“That’s nothing. If you’re a triple-A investor, then arrears would have to rise to about 15 percent before it starts to hurt the triple-A slice,” the banker said. 

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05/28/2009 (7:39 pm)

Sotomayor: Important business awaits

Filed under: management |

Business advocates started scrambling on Tuesday to figure out whether Supreme Court nominee Judge Sonia Sotomayor would be good or bad for companies.

But one thing was clear: If confirmed, she will be able to make her mark on business issues quickly, because a handful of key cases are already on the docket.

Companies and legal experts are scouring Sotomayor’s past opinions to glean clues about how she could rule on business issues.

The Supreme Court has already agreed to consider several high-profile cases in the new term, which starts Oct. 5.

"The stakes are incredibly high with respect to business issues," said Elizabeth Nowicki, an associate professor who teaches business law at Tulane University in New Orleans.

Among the issues are questions about corporate governance and securities fraud, Nowicki said.

In fact, the high court added a new one to the roster on Tuesday. The justices agreed to consider a case involving Merck & Co. (MRK, Fortune 500) that addresses how long investors can wait before making a securities fraud claim.

President Obama said he wants the Senate to confirm Sotomayor by the time of the congressional August recess, according to senior administration officials.

If confirmed, Sotomayor, 54, would be the first Hispanic and the third female Supreme Court Justice. She has been a federal judge since 1992, after being appointed to a federal trial court bench in New York by President George H.W. Bush. She was elevated to the appeals court by President Clinton in 1997.

One of Washington’s most powerful business groups indicated it will play a role over the next few weeks.

"The Chamber intends to be deeply involved in the confirmation process as it unfolds," Robin Conrad, executive vice president of the National Chamber Litigation Center, an arm of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in a statement.

When it comes to business issues, it can be difficult for lobbyists to predict how a judge will rule once they are on the court. Judicial leanings often don’t match typical ideological patterns, legal experts say.

For example, outgoing Justice David Souter was a Republican appointee but was considered a moderate on most business issues.

"People are going to be focused on the liberal versus the conservative question, but business cases tend to cut across those lines," said Lauren Goldman, an appellate attorney with Mayer Brown.

Souter was considered pro-business when it came to limiting punitive damages, or monetary awards that go beyond compensating to punish the at-fault party payday advance. In 2008, Souter wrote the high court’s decision to slash almost $2 billion from punitive damages that Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, Fortune 500) had originally been ordered to pay for the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill off the coast of Alaska.

"Justice Souter has been reliably hawkish with jury awards to punitive damages, but it remains to be seen whether Sotomayor would follow the same path," said Stephen Kinnaird, an appellate attorney at Paul Hastings.

Generally speaking, Sotomayor is also considered pretty moderate, at least when it comes to other issues businesses care about, such as limiting class action lawsuits and pre-empting state laws with federal laws, several attorneys said. She has ruled for investors and companies in many different types of cases.

"Both investors and corporations are going to be holding their breath to see what she does in the first few cases, because she just has no clear ascertainable bias for companies or investors, which is ideal," Nowicki said.

What’s on the docket? In the upcoming the case of Merck v. Reynolds, the Supreme Court will consider how long investors can wait to file a securities fraud suit.

Merck investors want billions of dollars because, because they claim the company mislead them about clinical trial results that linked the pain medication Vioxx to heart attacks. Merck argues the investors waited too long to file, but a lower court offered a more lenient time frame for investor cases to be filed.

Business groups are closely following at least two other pending cases.

The Supreme Court has agreed to consider a constitutional challenge to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, a series of corporate governance measures passed in the wake of the Enron collapse in 2002.

The court will consider whether the selection and removal of Public Accounting Oversight Board members violates the constitution on separation of powers. But companies that don’t like the accounting board and other strict rules imposed by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act are keen to have the entire act considered unconstitutional, which is possible.

In another case, the Supreme Court has agreed to consider whether an investment adviser’s fees were too high and violated standards set by the Investment Company Act of 1940. 

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