Bond traders are cutting expectations for U.S. inflation by the most since December, providing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke the scope for additional stimulus as the central bank
St. Louis should expect little improvement in the local job market or housing prices this year, according to a dismal new forecast from economists at PNC Bank.
Some excerpts:
St. Louis has not been able to accelerate its economic growth beyond stall speed thus far since the end of the recession. Employment growth is barely positive, and the market area’s labor force is declining in the absence of new job opportunities. What had appeared to be another manufacturing-centric turnaround story alongside so many other Midwest regional economies in early 2011 has sputtered entering 2012. The labor force has either been flat or seen outright declines in three of the past five quarters, indicating that would-be workers are falling out of the labor force count for lack of significant job opportunities. St. Louis looks set for sub par job creation through the next several quarters. Price declines (for homes) show little sign of bottoming out in the very near term, leading to expectations that even minimal price growth will be delayed until 2013. With employment gains temporarily stalled, housing demand will offer little price support in the coming year. St. Louis has traditionally posted a median household income level slightly greater than the Midwest and U.S. averages. This standing is under threat over the next few years, however, as the market area struggles to steady its labor market, and therefore its earnings potential.
The report expands on remarks made by an economist for the large Pittsburgh bank on a visit to St. Louis last week.
Ontario is taking aim at
About the only thing Kevin Flynn enjoys more than drinking his home-brewed beer is sharing it with fellow beer club members at festivals and tasting competitions. So Flynn and his buddies were shocked to discover that Wisconsin law prohibits sharing homemade suds anywhere outside the brewer’s home.
The law could “pretty much be the end of competitions in Wisconsin,” he lamented. “At least legal ones.”
An explosion of interest in home brewing is forcing lawmakers across the country to review long-forgotten alcohol laws, some of which date back to Prohibition. Although the old rules have rarely been enforced, beer enthusiasts fear they could criminalize the rapidly growing hobby and kill scores of annual tasting events that bring tourists to small towns and cities.
In Wisconsin, Flynn and other home brewers may soon be off the hook. The state Legislature last week passed a bill to allow them to transport homemade beer and wine and to share it with other adults. Brewers will still not be permitted to sell anything they make, and they will remain exempt from permit requirements and taxes.
The proposal now heads to Gov. Scott Walker, who plans to sign it into law.
At least 17 states have ambiguous laws on whether home brewers can transport beer or wine outside the home, according to the American Homebrewers Association in Boulder, Colo.
The patchwork of rules can be frustrating for hobbyists who would prefer to spend their time exchanging recipes for pale ale or rhapsodizing about different varieties of hops, barley and yeast.
Some states _ including Georgia and South Carolina _ have restrictions similar to Wisconsin’s. In Kansas and Minnesota, home brewers can only make beverages for themselves or family members. Other states permit homemade beer and wine to be consumed by guests, too, as in Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho and Illinois.
A few states have been slow to accommodate the trend. Utah just legalized home brewing in 2009, and Oklahoma followed in 2010. Mississippi and Alabama are the only states that still forbid it.
Dan Grady of the Wisconsin Homebrewers Alliance, who led the legislative effort to revise Wisconsin’s law, said beer-makers need to be watchful in case states try to use the issue to generate money for their tight budgets.
“States are under enormous pressure. It’s a revenue issue,” he said. “Everything is on the table these days.”
Gary Glass, director of the home brewers association, said it’s a balancing act when considering whether to pursue a change in the law.
“The question becomes, at what point does a home brewing community want to take on having the law changed if it’s not really having an impact to what they’re doing?”
Glass, who organizes the group’s popular national conference, said he’s had trouble securing a venue in states with vague home brewing laws payday loans for self employed. The conference, which changes its location annually, brings in $500,000 to local economies.
A grassroots reform effort succeeded last year in Oregon, where the law had been similar to Wisconsin’s. Glass, who helped draft Wisconsin’s bill, said the legislation’s demise would have set a bad precedent for home brewing.
“In this economy, you’re stifling an industry that’s growing,” he said. “It sounds like a bad move.”
More than ever, people with little or no experience brewing beer or other fermented beverages are investing in kits and ingredients to make their own. The hobby has expanded into a vibrant beer culture, with brewers freely sharing their concoctions among neighbors and friends and in clubs and competitions.
Last year, there were 411 beer competitions sanctioned by the home brewers association and the Beer Judge Certification Program. That’s up from fewer than 100 in the early 1990s.
“Back in the day, everybody thought home brewing would just be what your grandfather would do,” said Jason Heindel, president of the Beer Barons of Milwaukee Cooperative.
Home brewing has also helped invigorate the booming craft brewing industry. And it’s generated a cottage industry of its own. An annual survey of brewing supply shops around the country showed an increase in sales for beginner brewing kits, according to the home brewing association.
Home brewing was illegal in the United States until 1978, when the federal government lifted Prohibition-era restrictions on making alcohol in the home. The revised law allowed homemade beer and wine to be offered at tasting competitions but also left most alcohol regulations up to individual states. So many states have their own home-brewing rules that supersede federal policies.
In Wisconsin last year, brewers were caught off guard when the state Department of Revenue ruled that it was illegal for home brewers to share beer outside the home. The decision came after Racine officials inquired about a contest known as the Schooner Home Brew Competition.
After the department’s announcement, organizers quietly moved the contest, one of the state’s largest, from Racine to nearby Union Grove. But they didn’t advertise it because they feared possible fines.
Grady said home brewers in other states can learn from Wisconsin.
“Home brewers need to look at their state law, because they might be just as ambiguous as Wisconsin,” he said. “And if there’s ambiguity, they need to contact their lawmakers to get them clarified, much like we’re doing here.”
SAN FRANCISCO
Employment will improve more this year than economists previously estimated, helping the world
The Swiss Competition Commission said Friday it has launched an investigation into possible cartel behavior by a dozen banks including the country’s two biggest institutions UBS and Credit Suisse.
The banks are suspected of colluding to influence key interest rates and the trading conditions for derivatives, the commission said in a statement Friday.
“Specifically, collusion between derivative traders might have influenced the reference rates LIBOR and TIBOR,” it said.
The London Interbank Offered Rate, LIBOR, and the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate, TIBOR, underlay many commercial interest rates.
The commission said the banks are also suspected of illegally influencing market conditions for derivatives based on these reference rates.
The foreign institutions named in the Swiss probe are Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings PLC, JP Morgan Chase & Co., Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Rabobank Groep N.V., Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, Societe Generale SA, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
Competition authorities in the United States and Britain have launched similar investigations.
World stock markets were mixed Wednesday, as a modest improvement in manufacturing data from China offered reassurance over its economic slowdown, though Asian markets fell back from early gains.
Benchmark oil hovered below $99 per barrel while the dollar rose against the euro but fell against the yen.
In early European trading, Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.8 percent to 5,724.91 and Germany’s DAX both rose 1.1 percent at 6,525.76. France’s CAC-40 jumped 1.3 percent to 3,340.45. Wall Street was set to open higher, with Dow Jones industrial futures rising 0.2 percent at 12,607 and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.2 percent at 1,310.40.
A better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing index for January, issued by a government federation, fueled an early rally in most markets across Asia. But that evaporated after the release later in the morning of a competing, seasonally adjusted survey by HSBC suggesting conditions were still deteriorating.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 edged up less than 0.1 percent to close at 8,809.79. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.3 percent to 20,333.37 while Seoul’s Kospi added 0.2 percent to 1,959.24.
By afternoon, shares in mainland China had retreated back into negative territory, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shedding 1.2 percent to 2,268.08.
“Rumors that pension funds will not be invested in shares have raised worries over inadequate liquidity,” said Cai Dagui, an analyst at Ping’an Securities, based in Shenzhen.
Shares will likely remain unstable as investors await annual earnings reports, he said.
The mixed signals from China compounded uncertainties over its outlook, showing that despite resilient consumer demand exports remain sluggish payday loans with no fax.
Such concerns are especially acute for Australia, whose economy has thrived on exports of coal, iron ore and other commodities to China.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.9 percent to 4,225.70, while India’s Sensex edged 0.1 percent higher to 17,208.68.
Taiwan, Indonesia and New Zealand gained ground, though Singapore declined.
Overnight Tuesday, an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence dragged shares down on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average lost 20.81 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,632.91. The S&P slipped 0.60 point to 1,312.41 while the Nasdaq composite index rose 1.90 points to close at 2,813.84.
Overall, though, U.S. shares had their best start in 15 years, thanks to a modest improvement in the economy. Sentiment was further buoyed by hopes of progress in Europe after leaders there agreed on the broad outlines of a deal to tie the countries that use the euro closer together and on hopes that Greece is close to a debt-reduction deal with private creditors.
Benchmark oil for March delivery gained 38 cents to $98.85 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 30 cents to end at $98.48 per barrel in New York on Tuesday.
In currencies, the euro fell to $1.3070 from $1.3084 late Tuesday in New York. The dollar fell to 76.16 yen from 76.20 yen.
Cass Informations Systems reported fourth-quarter net income of $5.5 million, or 53 cents per share, compared with $5.1 milllion, or 48 cents per share, in the corresponding period of 2010.
For the year, Cass–a Bridgeton-based provider of invoice payment and information services–reported record net income of $23 million, or $2.21 per share, compared with $20.3 million, or $1.95 per share, in 2010.
After nearly nine years, 4,500 American dead, 32,000 wounded and more than $800 billion, U.S. officials formally shut down the war in Iraq _ a conflict that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said was worth the price in blood and money, as it set Iraq on a path to democracy.
Panetta stepped off his military plane in Baghdad Thursday as the leader of America’s war in Iraq, but will leave as one of many top U.S. and global officials who hope to work with the struggling nation as it tries to find its new place in the Middle East and the broader world.
More than 100,000 Iraqis have been killed since the U.S. invasion in 2003, according to the Iraq Body Count website. Bombings and gun battles are still common. And experts are concerned about the Iraqi security force’s ability to defend the nation against foreign threats.
Still, Panetta said earlier this week, the war “has not been in vain.”
Panetta and several other U.S. diplomatic, military and defense leaders participated Thursday in a symbolic ceremony during which the flag of U.S. Forces-Iraq was officially retired, or “cased,” according to Army tradition. The U.S. Forces-Iraq flag was furled _ or wrapped _ around a flagpole and covered in camouflage. It will be brought back to the United States.
“You will leave with great pride _ lasting pride,” Panetta told the troops. “Secure in knowing that your sacrifice has helped the Iraqi people to begin a new chapter in history.”
During a stop in Afghanistan this week, Panetta described the mission as “making that country sovereign and independent and able to govern and secure itself.”
That, he said, is “a tribute to everybody _ everybody who fought in that war, everybody who spilled blood in that war, everybody who was dedicated to making sure we could achieve that mission.”
Iraqi citizens offered a more pessimistic assessment. “The Americans are leaving behind them a destroyed country,” said Mariam Khazim of Sadr City. “The Americans did not leave modern schools or big factories behind them. Instead, they left thousands of widows and orphans.”
A member of the political coalition loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr saw another message in the U.S. withdrawal. “The American ceremony represents the failure of the U.S. occupation of Iraq due to the great resistance of the Iraqi people,” said Sadrist lawmaker Amir al-Kinani.
Panetta echoed President Barack Obama’s promise that the U.S. plans to keep a robust diplomatic presence in Iraq, foster a deep and lasting relationship with the nation and maintain a strong military force in the region.
As of Thursday, there were two U.S. bases and about 4,000 U.S. troops in Iraq _ a dramatic drop from the roughly 500 military installations and as many as 170,000 troops during the surge ordered by President George W. Bush in 2007, when violence and raging sectarianism gripped the country. All U.S. troops are slated to be out of Iraq by the end of the year, but officials are likely to meet that goal a bit before then.
The total U.S. departure is a bit earlier than initially planned, and military leaders worry that it is a bit premature for the still maturing Iraqi security forces, who face continuing struggles to develop the logistics, air operations, surveillance and intelligence sharing capabilities they will need in what has long been a difficult neighborhood payday loans in 1 hour.
U.S. officials were unable to reach an agreement with the Iraqis on legal issues and troop immunity that would have allowed a small training and counterterrorism force to remain. U.S. defense officials said they expect there will be no movement on that issue until sometime next year.
Still, despite Obama’s earlier contention that all American troops would be home for Christmas, at least 4,000 forces will remain in Kuwait for some months. The troops will be able to help finalize the move out of Iraq, but could also be used as a quick reaction force if needed.
Obama met in Washington with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki earlier this week, vowing to remain committed to Iraq as the two countries struggle to define their new relationship. Ending the war was an early goal of the Obama administration, and Thursday’s ceremony will allow the president to fulfill a crucial campaign promise during a politically opportune time. The 2012 presidential race is roiling and Republicans are in a ferocious battle to determine who will face off against Obama in the election.
Panetta acknowledged the difficulties for Iraq in the coming years, as the country tries to find its footing.
“They’re going face challenges in the future,” Panetta said Wednesday during a visit with troops in Afghanistan. “They’ll face challenges from terrorism, they’ll face challenges from those that would want to divide their country. They’ll face challenges from just the test of democracy, a new democracy and trying to make it work. But the fact is, we have given them the opportunity to be able to succeed.”
The ceremony at Baghdad International Airport also featured remarks from Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Lloyd Austin, the top U.S. commander in Iraq.
Austin is leading the massive logistical challenge of shuttering hundreds of bases and combat outposts, and methodically moving more than 50,000 U.S. troops and their equipment out of Iraq over the last year _ while still conducting training, security assistance and counterterrorism battles.
The war “tested our military’s strength and our ability to adapt and evolve,” he said, noting the development of the new counterinsurgency doctrine.
Over the coming days, the final few thousand U.S. troops will leave Iraq in orderly caravans and tightly scheduled flights _ a marked contrast to the shock and awe that rocked the country on March 20, 2003, as the U.S. invasion began.
Saddam Hussein has been ousted, the reports of weapons of mass destruction largely laid to rest. And the future of a nascent democracy awaits.