Financial thoughts

Private nonresidential construction may pick up this year, as demand grows for new U.S. projects.

The Architecture Billings Index held at 52 last month, a sign of expansion, according to the American Institute of Architects. The commercial and industrial component — a proxy for private building activity — climbed to 54.1 in December, the highest in 10 months, the Washington-based association said Jan. 18.

The monthly survey of U.S.-based architecture firms is a leading indicator of nonresidential construction, said Kermit Baker, chief economist for the association.

Cass Informations Systems reported fourth-quarter net income of $5.5 million, or 53 cents per share, compared with $5.1 milllion, or 48 cents per share, in the corresponding period of 2010.

For the year, Cass–a Bridgeton-based provider of invoice payment and information services–reported record net income of $23 million, or $2.21 per share, compared with $20.3 million, or $1.95 per share, in 2010.

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Leaders of the world

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery.

Without making major shifts to its outlook for the economy, the central bank described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices.

It depicted business investment as having slowed, dowgrading its assessment from the December meeting.

Economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014,” the central bank said in a statement.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, an inflation hawk who rotated into a voting seat this year, dissented against the decision. He preferred to omit the description of the time period for ultra-low rates.

As part of an effort to provide more insight on its thinking to financial markets and the public, the Fed later on Wednesday will begin publishing individual policymakers’ projections for the appropriate path of the benchmark federal funds rate. That release is scheduled for 2 p.m. (1900 GMT)

If the Fed can convince financial markets it will be on hold longer than they had anticipated, long-term interest rates could drop as investors price in the new information.

“A significant contingent of the committee views this exercise not so much as a process improvement but more as an opportunity to ease again via the forward rate communications channel,” Stephen Stanley, an economist at Pierpoint Securities, said ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

There is also the possibility that officials will announce an explicit inflation target, perhaps a hard marker of 2 percent or a range of 2 percent or a bit below guaranteed online personal loans. The Fed has been debating a statement on its long-run goals, but whether one will be released on Wednesday is unclear.

While forecasters expect the U.S. economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the last three months of 2011, they look for growth of just around 2 percent this year.

Fed officials appear likely to bide their time in determining whether more monetary stimulus is needed. Many economists expect they will eventually decide on another spurt of Fed bond buying - probably one focused on mortgage debt.

In response to the deepest recession in generations, the Fed slashed the overnight federal funds rate to near zero in December 2008. It has also more than tripled the size of its balance sheet to around $2.9 trillion through two separate bond purchase programs.

The policy is credited with having prevented an even more devastating downturn, but it has been insufficient to bring unemployment down to levels considered normal during good economic times.

In December, the U.S. jobless rate stood at 8.5 percent, and some 13 million Americans were still actively looking for work but could not find it.

Analysts said the Fed’s shift in communications will put an even greater emphasis on a post-meeting news conference by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke set for 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT).

“The chairman is likely to remain non-committal to any additional policy easing, but he is likely to reinforce the Fed’s commitment to ‘review the size and composition of its securities holdings’ and be ‘prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate,’” said Millan Mulraine, senior macro strategist at TD Securities.

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The last big name from the old days at Anheuser-Busch is leaving Pestalozzi Street.

Dave Peacock, who went from August Busch IV’s right-hand man to Carlos Brito’s U.S. point man, resigned from Anheuser-Busch InBev Monday, a move some see as one of the final steps of the brewery’s transition to new ownership.

The 43-year-old – a second-generation A-B employee who met his wife on his first day of work there – says the parting was his idea, and amicable. He’ll remain an adviser to the company, but he wants to do something else while he’s still young enough to do so.

“I’ve been really blessed,” Peacock said. “When you grow up in St. Louis and your dad works for the brewery, you never even dream you’re going to have a shot at the job I had. But it’s time to try something different.”

In leaving, according to regulatory filings, Peacock appears to be walking away from stock options that would today be worth roughly $28 million. The arrangement required that he stay five years after the merger and that the company meet financial targets. It was unclear Monday if he received other compensation upon resigning.

Peacock’s departure comes three years into a transition that has seen many of the brewer’s top local executives leave, and as A-B InBev searches for ways to grow its iconic Budweiser and Bud Light brands despite a tough economy for big beer. The well-liked Peacock – whose title was president of Anheuser-Busch - was in charge of U.S. operations for A-B InBev. He played a key role in helping the Belgian-Brazilian conglomerate absorb its big acquisition, said Tom Pirko, managing director of Bevmark, a food industry consulting firm.

Now, with the takeover fading in the rearview mirror, the challenges are different.

“They’re in to Phase Two now,” Pirko said. “Phase Two is an ability to stabilize and grow the business. That requires new thinking, new blood. The company’s got to deliver in a way that it hasn’t been delivering in the last few years.”

That job will fall to Luiz Edmond, a Brazilian who has been been A-B InBev’s North America zone president, and Peacock’s boss, since the takeover. He’s been based in St. Louis and will remain here, and add Peacock’s U.S. duties to his portfolio.

“Dave has been a great colleague, embracing and leading many changes that we agreed would be difficult, but that would ultimately benefit the U.S. business in the long term,” Edmond said in an e-mail to employees Monday. “He has helped Brito, me and the global and zone management teams in transitioning the company in many ways over the last three years.”

Peacock had worked at Anheuser-Busch since 1992 and rose through the ranks to become its vice president of marketing and a close confidant of August Busch IV. He bled Budweiser, colleagues said, and was widely seen as a rising star in the industry.

Peacock played a crucial role in the days after Anheuser-Busch agreed to InBev’s terms in July 2008. He joined Busch – and did most of the St. Louis brewery’s talking – on a Monday morning conference call with Brito announcing the deal. The next day, according to Dethroning the King, a book by writer Julie McIntosh that chronicles the takeover, it was Peacock who gave Brito a ride to the brewery for his first visit as the new boss.

Peacock’s efforts were noticed, and he was alone among top A-B executives in having a major role at the new company. For the last three years, he helped to manage cuts, smooth relations with employees and distributors, and served as A-B InBev’s face in the U.S., including St. Louis.

But some industry-watchers suspect Peacock had had his fill. The business keeps getting tougher for big brewers, said Harry Schumacher, publisher of trade publication Beer Business Daily. Craft beers and spirits are eating market share, and more fights likely loom with distributors.

“They’re really getting sandwiched from both sides, and they’re going to need some changes,” Schumacher said. “I don’t think Dave wanted to go down that road and be the bad cop.”

In an interview Monday, Peacock said he’d been mulling the move for about a year, and that he’s leaving Anheuser-Busch in good hands, both with Brito and Edmond and with a core of U.S.-based executives who worked under him. He’s not sure what he plans to do next, but said he thinks he’ll stay in St. Louis, where his family lives and his children are in school.

And as for leaving behind those stock options – which were likely to start paying out in less than two years – he said it’s not really about the money.

“I didn’t really mind leaving that money on the table,” Peacock said. “It was just the right time for me.”

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An official at the main airport serving Yemen’s capital says that protesting troops have closed the runways with armored vehicles, demanding that the commander of the country’s air force be replaced.

The garrison at Sanaa airport’s attached military air base is demanding the removal of Maj. Gen. Mohammed Saleh, the brother of outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the official says.

He says the Sunday protest has caused two flights to be diverted to the airport at the southern city of Yemen.

Another official at the airport in the southern city of Taiz says troops there have been staging a similar protest demanding the ouster of their commander since Saturday. Both officials spoke anonymously in accordance with regulations.

Yemen has experienced an 11-month uprising against Saleh’s rule.

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International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde joined world financial and trade organization chiefs in warning policy makers gathering in Davos, Switzerland next week against fiscal cuts that jeopardize growth.

Divers have resumed the search for 21 people still missing after a cruise ship capsized off the Tuscan coast.

Divers were scouring the submerged area of the ship Thursday once officials determined it had stablized after shifting on the rocks a day earlier.

Rough seas were forecast for later in the day, adding an element of uncertainty to the search and plans to begin pumping a half-million gallons of fuel from the vessel.

The missing include a 5-year-old Italian girl and her father. The girl’s mother issued a fresh appeal to speed the search and for passengers who saw the pair to come forward to help determine where they were last seen.

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Lee Enterprises Tuesday reported a profit of $14.624 million, or 32 cents per share, for the quarter that ended Dec. 25.  That compares to $18.980 million, or 42 cents per share, in the same quarter of 2010.

The newspaper company, owner of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, said the year-over-year comparison would be positive if not for refinancing costs and other unusual items.  Excluding such matters, profits would equal 38 cents per share for the recent quarter, compared to 32 cents a year earlier.  

The company filed for bankruptcy last month, submitting a reorganization plan pre-approved by the vast majority of its creditors.  Chief Financial Officer Carl Schmidt said the court will be asked to set Jan. 30 as the date to make the plan effective and conclude the bankruptcy. 

Operating revenue was down 3.9 percent in the December quarter compared to a year earlier payday loans online. Operating expenses were down 5 percent, excluding unusual items, and the work force was down by 7 percent.

As in earlier periods, the company showed sharp gains in digital advertising while print ads, which make up the bulk of its advertising, continued to decline. Combined print and digital advertising was down 6.1 percent. 

CEO Mary Junck said she expects slowly improving revenue trends in 2012.  “Our refinancing agreements, along with our continued strong cash flow, will provide a solid financial footing as we continue reshaping Lee for future growth,” said Junck.

Lee, based in Davenport, Iowa, owns 48 daily newspapers, holds an interest in four others, and owns 300 specialty publications in 23 states.

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Nigerian oil union Pengassan said it will only shut down oil output as