10/07/2008 (5:52 pm)

U.K. Needs Rate Cut to 4.5% After `Alarming' Quarter, BCC Says

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The Bank of England should cut the key interest rate by a half point to 4.5 percent this week after U.K. business confidence had an “alarming'' drop in the past quarter, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

Business confidence, based on a survey of almost 5,100 companies, fell to the lowest since the data began in 1989, the London-based lobby group said today. Indexes measuring sales in services and manufacturing, making up 90 percent of the economy, showed contraction at a faster pace than in the second quarter.

The BCC and the Confederation of British Industry, the nation's two largest business lobbies, have both now called on the central bank to make the biggest cut in borrowing costs since 2001. Policy makers have left the key interest rate at 5 percent since April as they tried to bring inflation back down from the fastest pace in at least a decade.

“From the point of view of the authorities, this is potentially an emergency,'' David Kern, economic adviser to the BCC, told reporters yesterday. “In normal times you don't ask the Bank of England to cut rates when inflation is so high. But the risks of recession are bigger and more immediate.''

The BCC's index for factory sales fell to minus 13 in the third quarter from minus 3 in the three months through June, the worst since 1999. A measure of sales at service businesses declined to minus 7 from minus 2 points, the lowest reading since 1991 (500 fast cash). Confidence for sales at service companies fell to 8 from 24, and for manufacturers it declined to 5 from 22, the report showed.

Factory Production

A separate report today may show that factory production fell for a sixth month in August. The Office for National Statistics will publish data on industrial production at 9:30 a.m. in London.

The bank will cut its benchmark rate by at least quarter point on Oct. 9, according to 48 of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Five predict a reduction of half a point, including Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“In the light of the current turmoil in the markets, the damage to confidence and implications for the real economy,'' the bank should make a half-point rate cut, CBI Deputy Director General John Cridland said yesterday.

Rate cuts still won't ease strains in money markets that are feeding the global financial crisis, said Kenneth Clarke, a former chancellor of the exchequer.

“Some modest cutting of rates may be justified but I don't think it will make great deal of difference,'' he said in an interview on Bloomberg Television yesterday. “The Bank of England rate isn't having much effect on the real rate in the market.''

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10/06/2008 (8:13 am)

Stocks jump before House vote

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Stocks jumped at the open Friday, as investors looked past a very weak monthly employment report and focused on the House revote on the Wall Street bailout bill.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), the Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) index and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) all gained in the early going.

Investors also welcomed Wachovia’s surprise deal with Wells Fargo, ahead of the House’s second vote on a $700 billion bank bailout package.

The House shot down a similar bill earlier in the week, but the Senate passed a tweaked version Wednesday, with sweeteners added to please the House. Investors expect the bill to pass, especially after the job market took another big hit Friday.

Jobs: The U.S. Department of Labor announced Friday that the economy had shed 159,000 jobs in September. That’s more than the 105,000 economists were expecting, and it was the largest drop since 2003. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.1%.

Bank merger: Struggling bank Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500) made the surprise announcement Friday that it accepted a $15.1 billion buyout bid from Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500). Wachovia shares jumped 75% at the open, while Wells Fargo added 8%.

The deal trumps Citigroup (C, Fortune 500)’s $2.2 billion offer announced Tuesday that didn’t include Wachovia’s brokerage and asset management businesses (instant payday loan). Furthermore, the deal with Wells Fargo will not require assistance from the federal government like Citigroup’s deal would.

AIG: American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500), which received an $85 billion loan from the Federal Reserve two weeks ago, said it would refocus the company on its core property and casualty insurance businesses, while exploring opportunities to sell its other businesses and assets. AIG said it has drawn $61 billion in credit from the Fed as of Sept. 30. AIG gained 11%.

Economy: At 10 a.m. ET, the Institute for Supply Management will release its monthly index, the non-manufacturing ISM, that tracks the business activities of purchasing managers. For September, economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect an ISM of 50.4, down slightly from 50.6 in the prior month. Anything above 50 represents growth, anything below 50 means a slow-down.

Markets: The dollar rallied against the euro, but was down versus the yen and the British pound. Oil prices edged down 31 cents a barrel to $93.64.

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei index ended at a three-year low Friday over worries that the United States will fall into a recession. European stocks were higher in midday trading. 

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10/04/2008 (3:55 pm)

As credit dries up, car dealers close

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Over 27 years, Feld Chevrolet in Bridgeton built itself into a recognizable auto dealer and adopted the nickname "the Red Hot Dealer."

Recently, though, its sales weren’t so hot as its moniker.

When GMAC LLC stopped financing the dealership’s inventory in July, the decision left Feld Chevrolet scrambling to find a new lender. When it couldn’t find one, the dealership closed its doors last month.

Higher gasoline prices, a weaker economy and tighter money-lending standards for car buyers have squeezed new-car dealers like Feld Chevrolet. Customers are buying fewer vehicles, and the ones they buy are smaller and less expensive.

Although most dealers nationally and locally are enduring the tough times, some — in extreme cases — are shuttering their doors, laying off workers and leaving customers in limbo. Nationally, about 490 new-car dealerships have closed so far this year, according to the National Automobile Dealers Association. There were 20,770 new-car locations at the start of this year.

In the past several months, at least two St. Louis-area dealerships closed shop and one filed for bankruptcy. And several local dealership owners say more closures are on the way.

"There’ll be fewer players, and they’ll be larger in scale," said Vince Capatosta, the owner of All-Star Dodge Chrysler Jeep in Bridgeton.

bullet TALK: When you see local car dealers closing, do you worry?

SALES SLUMP

Auto information website Edmunds.com predicts 14.3 million new vehicles will be sold this year, down about 11 percent from a year ago.

In new-car sales, dealers typically make the most profit on larger vehicles such as pickups and sport utility vehicles. When gas prices spiked, sales of these vehicles plummeted. Instead, buyers wanted smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles.

"Those entry-level cars were never designed to be profit-makers for dealers," said Jamie Auffenberg, who owns 12 dealerships in the St. Louis and Metro East areas.

That jarring switch was a blow to dealers like Bill Heard Enterprises, a chain with 14 dealerships throughout the United States. The dealer announced last week that it closed all of its locations, and it pinned its problems, in part, on a product portfolio laden with heavy pickups and SUVs. None of its dealerships was in the St. Louis region.

Product lineup is one big problem for dealers who sell General Motors, Ford and Chrysler products. Much of the automakers’ offerings have been larger vehicles, and the companies now are scrambling to offer smaller, more fuel-efficient cars.

In the meantime, sales for Detroit Three automakers are expected to be significantly lower this year. Through last month, Ford, GM and Chrysler have seen double-digit decreases.

All three automakers and their dealer networks are in tough spots, said Mark Rikess, chief executive of dealership consulting firm the Rikess Group in Burbank, Calif.

Take Dave Croft Motors, a Collinsville Chrysler Dodge Jeep dealership. To keep its business open, it filed for Chapter 11 reorganization in U.S. District Court on Sept. 17. President Dave Croft said his location sold 150 to 160 vehicles a month in 2004 and 2005, but sales have tumbled to a monthly average of 75 to 80 vehicles.

According to court documents, the dealership owes about $4.2 million to 36 creditors.

"We look for a long business selling cars" in the future, Croft said.

The sales slump and dealership closings also extend to foreign brands, although their sales are down by smaller amounts.

"It’s challenging for all of them," said Auffenberg, who owns both foreign- and domestic-brand dealerships.

But despite difficulties, dealers are still making deals and devising ways to ride out the slump. In late spring, construction crews began an 8,000-square-foot expansion of Kent Newbold’s O’Fallon, Ill., Toyota Scion showroom and service center.

Newbold, who owns a Toyota Scion location and a neighboring BMW dealership, said he never considered halting construction — even as gasoline prices rose this summer and auto sales nationally got tougher.

"People want a premium experience," he said free credit report instantly. His 38,000-square-foot space is set for completion in February.

DWINDLING OF DEALERS

For dealers with one brand, the economic situation hits harder.

Subaru of O’Fallon, Ill., owned by John E. Hanna, is facing a lawsuit from its lender, Peoples National Bank of Jefferson County. The suit says the two-year-old Subaru dealership owes the bank more than $2 million, and the bank repossessed the dealership’s inventory in July, according to documents filed in St. Clair County Circuit Court.

Hanna’s attorney, Steve Wigginton of Weilmuenster & Wigginton P.C. in Belleville, said the economic slowdown forced the closure.

"There were far too few sales on the front end, and the quality of cars that (Hanna) sold did not cause a lot of service work on the back end," Wigginton said.

Other local auto dealers said the Subaru dealership closed because it was a location with just one brand of vehicles, and that brand typically sells less than domestic brands like Chevrolet or Ford. Its problems started before the economy slipped, dealers said, and it never recovered.

Automakers like Chrysler and GM see single-brand dealers as being more vulnerable. They have been pushing consolidation among their networks, hoping that a smaller number of stronger locations will be healthier than too many dealerships.

Jack Schmitt closed his 19-year-old Chevrolet dealership in Collinsville in August because he had another Chevy location in nearby O’Fallon, Ill., and was about to buy Albrecht-Hamlin Chevrolet in Wood River.

"It was just GM felt we needed to consolidate, and it really did make sense if you stop to think about it," said Schmitt, who also owns a Ford Lincoln-Mercury dealership in Collinsville and a Cadillac-Saab location in O’Fallon, Ill.

On a national scale, "it’s typical to lose 75 to 100 dealers" during a strong sales year, said Paul Taylor, the chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association in McLean, Va.

Some dealerships still will open this year, Taylor predicted, but there will be a net loss of 300 to 600 new-vehicle dealerships across the nation.

Analysts and dealers point out that waves of dealerships closings are not unprecedented. In the 1970s, the rise of imported vehicles, oil crises and economic downturns led to large amounts of closings, said Chris Denove, vice president of operational research for J.D. Power and Associates in Westlake Village, Calif.

But current credit problems intensify dealers’ challenges.

The credit crunch not only affects consumers trying to get loans on new vehicles: It also challenges some auto dealers who are trying to get financing for their inventories.

"GMAC, in particular, is in a depression" because it made loans on autos and houses, industries whose values have greatly fallen, Rikess said.

Feld Chevrolet lost financing from GMAC and could not find another lender willing to sign a contract, President Drew Wolfson said. GMAC repossessed the vehicles last month.

The dealership’s closure happened because of market conditions, "but I’d still be open if I didn’t have my credit canceled by GMAC," he said.

AUTOS’ AFTERMATH

Even with closing and consolidations, consumers usually don’t feel the impact. But sometimes, customers can be caught in the cross hairs.

Michelle Pye, 41, of St. Charles, said she paid $15,000 in full for a 2007 Chevrolet Impala from Feld Chevrolet in August. But her temporary license expired Sunday, and she still hadn’t received the title in the mail by Tuesday. Pye said she called GMAC and Chevrolet’s customer service lines but didn’t receive any results.

After a call to the Missouri attorney general’s office, Pye was told she’d receive a form to fill out and then would get her title.

"But it’s still an inconvenience," she said.

atablac@post-dispatch.com | 314-340-8140

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10/03/2008 (1:40 pm)

U.S. Economy: Factory Orders Slide Most in Almost Two Years

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Orders to U.S. factories fell in August by the most in almost two years, signaling that business spending slowed down even before the recent worsening of the credit crunch.

The 4 percent drop in bookings was larger than forecast and followed a 0.7 percent increase in July that was smaller than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Labor Department said first-time applications for jobless benefits rose to a seven-year high.

The downturn in business spending may deepen as the credit crisis hurts companies' ability to borrow; investors in the past week demanded the highest yields in eight years to buy U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds. International Monetary Fund economists today downgraded their assessment of the U.S. economy, seeing a “substantial likelihood of a sharp downturn.''

“The economy is really sitting on the precipice,'' said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “The benefit from exports looks as if it may be shrinking.''

Exports, which had made up for a slowdown in U.S. sales, are likely to weaken in coming months as growth in Europe and Japan also falters.

U.S. stocks slid and Treasuries climbed for a second day. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 2.9 percent to 1127.79 at 11:23 a.m. in New York. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell to 3.66 percent from 3.74 percent late yesterday.

Economists' Forecasts

Economists forecast factory orders for August would drop 3 percent after a previously reported 1.3 percent gain in July, according to the median of 59 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The number of people collecting jobless benefits rose to 3.59 million in the week ended Sept. 20, the most since 2003, the Labor Department reported today. First-time claims jumped to 497,000 in the week ended Sept. 27, reflecting job losses in the aftermath of the Gulf Coast hurricanes.

A private report yesterday indicated the manufacturing slump worsened last month. The Institute for Supply Management said its index fell to the lowest level since the 2001 recession. Orders, production and employment all dropped and exports rose at the slowest pace in two years (no fax payday loans) cash til payday loan.

“I just can't imagine that we'll see a lot of strength in the index in the next few months,'' Norbert Ore, chairman of the ISM survey, said yesterday in a conference call from Atlanta. “Manufacturing has weathered this downturn in the economy quite well, to this point.''

Yields Soar

The crisis that brought the bankruptcy, government takeover or forced merger of seven major financial companies last month is making it more expensive for companies to borrow. Yields on investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds reached as high as 7.85 percent last week, the highest level since November, 2000, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data.

Excluding demand for transportation equipment, which tends to be volatile, factory orders decreased 3.3 percent, the most since September 2001 when terrorists attacked the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

Bookings for all durable goods, which make up just under half of total orders, fell 4.8 percent in August, more than the Commerce Department estimated last week. Non-durable goods orders, including those for food, petroleum and chemicals, dropped 3.3 percent after.

Today's revision also made the outlook for business investment even dimmer. Bookings for capital goods excluding defense and aircraft, a proxy for future business spending, fell 2.4 percent in August compared with the 2 percent decline estimated last week.

Hit to GDP

Shipments of such goods, which the government uses to calculate gross domestic product, decreased 2.1 percent, also worse than previously estimated and the biggest drop since January 2007.

The slowdown in factory orders is forcing some companies to trim payrolls. Rockwell Automation Inc., the world's largest maker of factory automation products, said this week it will cut about 3 percent of its 20,000-member workforce immediately to reduce costs.

Keith Nosbusch, chief executive officer of the Milwaukee- based company, said in July that slower demand hurt profit for the quarter ended June 30.

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10/01/2008 (6:24 pm)

U.S. Factories Probably Contracted at Faster Pace in September

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Manufacturing in the U.S. probably contracted at a faster pace in September as sales slowed and the credit crisis deepened, economists said before a report today.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index dropped to 49.5 from 49.9 in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

The housing recession has already spread to autos, and other industries may soon follow, as mounting foreclosures, tougher lending rules and rising unemployment choke off consumer spending. While exports have so far kept manufacturing from slipping much more, weakening economies around the globe mean overseas sales may also weaken.

“The domestic demand for factory goods is relatively moribund,'' said Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California. “This is dampening production and employment.''

The Tempe, Arizona-based ISM's factory report is due at 10:00 a.m. New York time. Forecasts from the 72 economists surveyed range from 48 to 51.1.

A separate report from the Commerce Department at the same time may show construction spending fell 0.5 percent in August, a second consecutive decline, according to economists surveyed. Decreases in commercial construction, including cutbacks in factory building, and a continued slump in residential real estate will contribute to the drop, economists said.

At 8:15 a.m., a report from ADP Employer Services is forecast to show companies in the U.S. cut 50,000 workers from payrolls last month following a 33,000 decline in August, according to the survey median payday advance lender. It would be the measure's first back-to-back decrease in five years.

Less Spending

Companies are cutting back on investments and hiring as consumer spending wanes. A deteriorating labor market also is causing Americans to limit purchases to necessities such as food and fuel.

Chrysler LLC, the third-largest U.S. automaker, said last week that it planned to fire about 250 workers as part of a plan to cut 1,000 salaried positions by Sept. 30. The Auburn Hills, Michigan-based company's U.S. sales dropped 24 percent through August, more than twice the industry's 11 percent decline.

The U.S. economy, the world's largest, probably grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate during the third quarter, down from 2.8 percent the prior three months, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists from Sept. 2 to Sept. 9.

Cut Forecasts

Since then, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. have cut their forecasts as consumer spending stalled and the credit crisis brought down Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., American International Group Inc. and Washington Mutual Inc.

A narrowing of the trade deficit as exports jumped and imports fell was the biggest contributor to growth in the second quarter, adding 2.9 percentage points, the most since 1980. That is likely to diminish as economies in Europe and Japan falter.

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